'Economic activity appears to have peaked in the second quarter of FY26, with industrial output, exports, and business confidence all softening from October 2025.'
India's manufacturing sector activity witnessed the weakest improvement in the sector in two years in December on account of softer expansions in new orders, prompting firms to limit input purchases and job creation, a monthly survey said on Friday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) -- an indicator of sector performance -- fell from 56.6 in November to 55 in December.
India, the world's fourth largest economy, is set to maintain the 'goldilocks' phase with tailwinds of good growth, low inflation and robust banking performance as well as reform initiatives poised to sustain the economic pace witnessed during 2025.
'The biggest impact will be on coal and hence on power cost. Then comes iron ore, coking coal, bauxite.'
Stock markets will be driven by RBI's interest rate decision, tariff-related developments, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors in this holiday-shortened week, analysts said.
'The outlook for the next Samvat is more constructive, as many of the earlier drags are gradually becoming supports.'
The 15th India-Vietnam Defence Dialogue signalled a move from routine talks to deeper cooperation, with new deals on submarine rescue and defence industry to support stability in the Indo-Pacific, notes Dr Rajaram Panda.
Concerns over weakening demand for Indian pharmaceutical (pharma) drugs in the US - their largest export market - have weighed heavily on investor sentiment this year. While the Nifty 50 has gained 6.02 per cent year - to - date (as on September 15), the Nifty Pharma index has declined 5.18 per cent, National Stock Exchange data shows.
India's macroeconomic health is in a "relative goldilocks situation", and although the risk of higher landed oil prices, due to insurance cost surges and closure of choke points due to the brief Israel-Iran war, has receded, it is "too soon to sound the 'all clear' for the rest of the year", the Finance Ministry said on Friday.
'Due to tariff uncertainty, automotive customers reduced their steel uplift by almost 15 per cent.'
Hero MotoCorp Ltd (HMCL) has been the best-performing auto stock over the last three months, gaining over 17 per cent during this period. Multiple tailwinds, especially on the rural front, are expected to boost its volumes. In addition to the demand drivers, new launches too should help drive growth both in the commuter and premium motorcycle categories.
Marico may buck the industry trend with the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) major reporting strong growth and favourable commentary in a weak quarter for the industry. The company reported consolidated revenue growth of 8 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in Q2FY25. Domestic revenue growth was 8 per cent Y-o-Y with 5 per cent volume growth (4 per cent in Q1FY25).
Despite a healthy performance in the fourth quarter of 2024-25 (Q4FY25), the stock of India's largest listed pharma company, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries (Sun Pharma), was under pressure on Friday due to a muted guidance. The company has guided for a high single-digit revenue growth for FY26, which is below what the Street was working with.
Macrotech Developers (Lodha), the country's second-largest listed real estate company, exceeded its 2024-25 (FY25) guidance, aided by a strong pre-sales performance in the January-March quarter (Q4), driven by launches. The company had guided for Rs 17,500 crore in pre-sales for FY25 and surpassed that with bookings of Rs 17,630 crore.
ABB India's March quarter results (Q1CY24) were led by strong margin performance. Revenue was, however, largely in line with estimates at Rs 3,080 crore (up 28 per cent Y-o-Y and up 12 per cent Q-o-Q). The growth was across electrification (30 per cent Y-o-Y), process automation (73 per cent Y-o-Y) and robotics & motion (8 per cent Y-o-Y).
The S&P BSE Auto Index has been one of the biggest outperformers among sectoral indices over the past year with returns of 26 per cent. By comparison, the benchmarks - the National Stock Exchange Nifty50 and the S&P BSE Sensex - managed about 6-8 per cent during this period. Improving demand, falling raw material costs, and rising product realisations, led by the premiumisation of portfolios, have led to a revision of growth estimates and upgrades by domestic brokerages.
The FMCG industry hopes for a revival in consumption growth in 2025 with some 'green shoots' already visible, after having a challenging year amid escalating input costs and a double-digit rise in food inflation, which ultimately slowed down the pace of the urban market growth in the second half of 2024. Soaring prices of commodities such as palm oil, coffee, cocoa and wheat forced FMCG players to go for a hike of 3 to 5 per cent or resort to shrinkflation by reducing pack sizes and grammage to retain attractive price points, fearing a volume loss.
'I am not an aspiration-oriented politician.' 'This is the time to redefine politics.' 'Politics of power is not real politics.'
The trigger for international gold prices rising to $3,000 per ounce was Germany's upcoming heavy government borrowing.
Vivek Mahajan (Head - Research) Aditya Birla Money, analysed the slow IIP growth.
Siemens's share price has lost ground in the past few sessions following weak management commentary. The management indicated challenges to the growth outlook due to stagnant private capex and concerns over semiconductor shortages for digital industries. Government infra-spending may regain momentum from January 2025.
Notwithstanding robust volume growth and a strong performance from Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), Tata Motors, the country's second-largest automobile (auto) manufacturer by market capitalisation, disappointed the Street with its January-March quarter (Q4) results for 2023-24 (FY24). While consolidated revenues saw a 13 per cent increase, lower-than-expected realisations in the Indian operations weighed down overall performance.
Passenger vehicle retail sales in India witnessed a 10 per cent on-year jump in July driven by new model launches and enhanced discounts, industry body FADA said on Monday. Total passenger vehicle retail sales rose to 3,20,129 units in July, as compared to 2,90,564 units in July 2023. "Dealers reported benefits from good product availability, attractive schemes, and a wider range of products," the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA) vice president C S Vigneshwar said in a statement.
Against the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) projection of 7.1 per cent, India's first quarter (Q1) 2024-25 (FY25) gross domestic product (GDP) growth came in at 6.7 per cent. This is in line with market expectations and significantly lower than the 7.8 per cent recorded in the fourth quarter (Q4) 2023-24 (FY24) and 8.2 per cent in Q1FY24. The quarter witnessed decreased government consumption and investment spending due to the parliamentary election.
Trump's sweeping tariffs and penalties on China-built ships have turned global shipping into the front line of economic war, observes Shyam G Menon.
In June last year, India unveiled its first list of 29 critical minerals open for private sector exploration and mining. Since then, 38 critical mineral blocks have been auctioned, but only 14 - less than 37 per cent - have found bidders. This modest achievement was secured only after the Centre conducted a second round of auctions when the first round fell flat, failing to attract the minimum required bidders.
Maruti Suzuki, Tata Motors, Mahindra & Mahindra, Hyundai and MG Motors are gearing up to introduce EVs in India.
'I am very happy to see that the work is starting to bear some fruit now.'
Gold, a safe-haven bet, is likely to continue its record-smashing journey in the New Year, rising to Rs 85,000 per 10 grams and even Rs 90,000 level in domestic markets if geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties continue.
India's three-wheeler exports, which have been on a downhill trajectory over the past few years, are showing no signs of recovery in FY25, with key markets like Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nigeria, and Egypt witnessing subdued demand. In May, the country's exports plummeted 11.3 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y).
More than half (56 per cent) of chief economists expect the global economy to weaken in 2024, with most saying the pace of geo-economic fragmentation will accelerate, according to the latest "Chief Economists Outlook" released on Monday at the World Economic Forum (WEF). The report indicates that the global economic prospects remain subdued and uncertain. Challenges include tight financial conditions, geopolitical rifts, and the rapid development of generative artificial intelligence (AI).
'It is not that employee work is not happening if you don't see it.'
Retail investors have become a force to reckon with in the last 10 years with their ownership of Indian equities rising 800 basis points, or 8 per cent, to 23.4 per cent during this period, suggests a recent note from Morgan Stanley. This number, Morgan Stanley said, is set to rise in the next few years as Indian households are still underinvested in equities. India's demographics, policy framework, investor education and modest positive real rates, it said, will fuel the 'equity cult' in India.
'While most companies were bullish before the second wave of double-digit sales growth in FY22, that may not be the case now.'
'India represents one of the top opportunities with robust growth, solid fundamentals, and openness to foreign investment.'
Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies anticipate sustained volume pressures in the January-March quarter (Q4) coupled with sluggish rural growth during the period. Brokerages estimate top-line growth to be in low single digits in the quarter. Also, the late onset of winter had an impact on demand for winter products which range from moisturisers to hot beverages.
'Whether I am optimistic or pessimistic is not the issue; I am just going by the evidence available.' 'The Indian economy and financial sector are now well-placed and very resilient in dealing with any kind of spillover coming from the external world.'
Since 2008, the Bureau of Energy Efficiency is running a star rating programme, under which electric equipment are rated according to their efficiency. This in turn helps the consumers save electricity.
India's electric two-wheeler (E2W) sector is expected to cross the one million mark in 2024 fuelled by rising demand, increased production, and affordability, industry experts said, even as several original equipment makers are expanding their penetration to rural areas. Improved battery technology and innovative features are also likely to fuel growth, they said. "E2W sales will breach the 1-million mark in 2024 as the demand for electric two-wheelers is expected to continue growing due to factors such as environmental awareness, government incentives, and improvements in technology," Hyder Khan, chief executive officer (CEO), Godawari Electric Motors, said.
'It's a debatable topic, and we will submit our comments to the RBI by June 15.'
